Washington Weekly
Nov. 4, 2014

Election Day 2014

Today millions of Americans are planning to head out to the polls, while millions more completed early and absentee voting throughout the nation this fall.

Nearly every major newspaper of record is now predicting a Republican takeover of the U.S. Senate, with Republicans also gaining seats in the House, potentially leading to its biggest majority since WWII. The Washington Post is predicting that 79% of the seats will change hands. However, two states are not expected to be decided tonight, Louisiana and Georgia, which require that the winner receive over 50% of the vote. Interestingly, Georgia’s scheduled run-off would not be until January 6, three days after Congress is sworn in. Alaska is likely to change hands, but that election will not be called until late into the night. To see who is on every federal ballot in the nation and to keep track for yourself, click here.

Experts have been saying that two states to watch are New Hampshire and Kentucky. If things end early and Republican Scott Brown wins in the Granite State, things should look very good nationwide for the GOP. However, if Kentucky challenger Allison Lundegren Grimes manages to give the presumptive leader in the Senate Mitch McConnell a stronger fight, it could be a very good sign nationally for Democrats.

Throughout the day, ASA's E-Advocacy Hub will be your source for up-to-the-minute election results and information. Powered by our partners at BIPAC, beginning at 6 a.m., election information will be updated hourly and can be viewed here.More

Item of Interest

Last night, our 2012 and 2014 Legislative Fly-in Speaker, David Wasserman provided his final analysis of the landscape in the House. He will also be doing election night analysis for NBC News this evening.

HOUSE OVERVIEW | By David Wasserman, Nov. 3
Final Preview: 7 Things to Watch in the House

For political junkies fraught with anticipation, it's Christmas Eve. Tomorrow, most will be glued to to the question of whether Republicans take back the Senate. But, there are some unresolved subplots in the House as well, despite the fact that Republicans appear certain to expand their majority - our current estimate is between six and 12 seats. Here is a "viewer's guide" of seven potential House takeaways to keep in mind on Election NightMore

House: Double-Digit GOP Gains Now Possible
The Cook Political Report
With less than a week to go, the momentum is clearly with Republicans, and House Democrats are bracing for the possibility that Election Night could be uglier than they originally thought. The DCCC has been forced to shift more and more resources to playing defense in Democratic-leaning districts, and several seats that looked in good shape a few months ago are now looking more precarious.More

Advocates Plan Massive Push for Online Sales Tax
The Hill
Advocates for giving states more freedom to collect sales taxes on online purchases are launching a last-minute lobbying flurry, believing the looming post-election session of Congress will be their best shot to get a bill signed into law. The bill, known as the Marketplace Fairness Act, has a history of bipartisan Senate support, and its backers have long believed that it is just a matter of time before it gets across the finish line. More

What You Can Learn from Looking at Election Day's Most Boring House Races
National Journal
On Nov. 5, we will hopefully know which party will take the reins in Congress. But with so much emphasis being placed upon the scant swing districts across the country, the safe districts might feel a little left out. So, National Journal took a look at the safest of the safe districts for Republicans and Democrats in the House of Representatives, using The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index. More

Election Lab: 2014 Midterm Elections Forecast
The Washington Post
Like most forecasting models, Election Lab uses the past to predict the future. To predict House and Senate elections in 2014, they draw on the elections from 1980-2012. They first look at how well key factors were related to outcomes in those past elections. More

Minimum Wage Hike on Ballot in 4 Red States
The Hill
Voters in four traditionally conservative states will lend their voices Nov. 4 to the national debate over raising the minimum wage. Initiatives on the issue will appear on ballots in Alaska, Arkansas, Nebraska and South Dakota.More

Mysteries in the Race for the House
Politico
As the 2014 House election enters its final hours, this much is certain: Republicans will retain control of the chamber, and perhaps win their largest majority since the 1940s. After that, there are all sorts of wild cards. Will this election season — which already saw House Majority Leader Eric Cantor lose his primary — produce any more upsets? More