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The Signal and the Noise should influence your next financial prediction
CFA Chicago
Nate Silver has been called a "spreadsheet psychic" and "number-crunching prodigy" by New York Magazine — He uses his experience in baseball statistics to formulate incredible forecasting models for politics. CFA Society Chicago is proud to announce Nate Silver as the keynote speaker at the 27th Annual Dinner, the premier networking event of the year — register now to gain insight into Silver's incredible predictions and socialize with over 800 investment professionals. Register before it's too late — registration closes Oct. 18 at 5 p.m..
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Marketing and engagement — two important tools of the trade
CFA Chicago
Utilize CFA Chicago's membership network by joining us for a progressive networking dinner in Palatine. Attendees will enjoy a three-course meal from Emmett's Ale House and be given plenty of opportunities to speak with members and pass out marketing materials. Start preparing your materials and "elevator speeches" now!
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Your online image is just as crucial as your professional image
CFA Chicago
When it comes to managing social media practices within the financial services industry, career strategist Kathy Graham is the expert. Come with questions about developing your own interactive identity via LinkedIn, Facebook, and Twitter. Attendance is free for members and student members but space is LIMITED — register for our Nov. 14 discussion with Graham before it's too late to fine-tune your social media presence.
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Futurology — Can things only get better or worse?
CFA Chicago's Enterprising Investor
In the depths of the 1930s depression, economist John Maynard Keynes published a brief essay, “Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren,” sketching a vision of spectacular future abundance. Keynes imagined that by 2030 the standard of living would be so high that everyone, liberated from humdrum chores and illusory consumerism, need work no more than fifteen (yes, 15!) hours per week, devoting the rest of their time to leisure, the enjoyment of high culture and intellectual improvement. Alas, this happy scenario is predicated on some notable assumptions: an absence of destructive wars, moderate population growth, the completely free and unfettered accumulation of capital, and bountiful technological advances.
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Nate Silver's 6 big takeaways from the government shutdown
FiveThirtyEight via Grantland
As Silver discussed in his book The Signal and the Noise, the more common tendency instead is that people (and especially the "experts" who write about the issues for a living) overestimate the degree of predictability in complex systems. There are some other exceptions besides presidential elections — sports, in many respects; and weather prediction, which has become much better in recent years. But for the most part, the experts you see on television are much too sure of themselves. That's been Silver's impression of the coverage of the shutdown: The folks you see on TV are much too sure of themselves. They've been making too much of thin slices of polling and thinner historical precedents that might not apply this time around.
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Abbott Laboratories moves up in analyst rankings
Forbes
In a study of analyst recommendations at the major brokerages, for the underlying components of the S&P 500, Abbott Laboratories has taken over the #192 spot from Hess Corp, according to ETF Channel. Below is a chart of Abbott Laboratories versus Hess Corp plotting their respective rank within the S&P 500 over time.
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2 University of Chicago professors share Nobel Prize in economics
Sun Times
During his five decades at the University of Chicago, Eugene Fama’s name had often come up as someone in the running for the Nobel prize for economics. But then Famas thought perhaps it would never happen. “People have talked about it for a long time, but so many people can win it,” Fama, 74, said Oct. 14, after the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences announced Fama and fellow U. of C. professor Lars Peter Hansen had won this year’s prize , along with Robert Shiller, a Yale University professor. “You put a low probability on it. So when it happens, it’s a surprise.”
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Is it time for low volatility funds?
Investopedia
With the recent government shut-down and debt ceiling limit quickly approaching, the market has once again begun it’s up and down movements. Adding in slowing growth in key emerging markets like China and debt problems in Europe once again beginning to resurface and it’s no wonder why volatility has returned with a vengeance. Funds that attempt to track this “fear” — such as the iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures ETN — have spiked in recent weeks, while the broad market indexes have gone down. Given the recent volatility of the market, investors could be getting a little seasick. Luckily, there are a variety of new ways for the average retail investor to "smooth out" their ride over the short term.
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TRENDING ARTICLES
Missed last week's issue? See which articles your colleagues read most.

    Yield search can led to shark-tank investments (Financial Advisor)
Why investors need to read Nate Silver's book (Business Insider)
Perfect predictions: FiveThirtyEight is changing the game (CFA Chicago)
Analyst: Here are 3 reasons why stocks are still beautiful to us (Business Insider)
The retirement crisis: Is mandatory savings the way forward? Or a 'toxic' proposal? (CFA Institute's Enterprising Investor)

Don't be left behind. Click here to see what else you missed.


Editorial: Real decisions and no decisions
Chicago Tribune
Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle demonstrated Thursday what a political leader can do with some grit and determination. She has made real, credible progress in reviving the once-shameful mess that was Cook County government. Remember the Todd Stroger era? The county is on its way to being a different place. Preckwinkle gradually eliminated the hated sales tax increase Stroger had imposed. She recently released a no-new-taxes-or-fees county budget for 2014. But Preckwinkle's budget presentation to the Tribune editorial board also contained a warning: She said there's trouble ahead if Illinois does not substantially reform its public employee pension systems.
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Big-data startup TempoDB snags VC cash
Crain's Chicago Business
Chicago big-data startup TempoDB announced recently that it has raised $3.2 million in venture capital from an investment group led by Chicago's Hyde Park Venture Partners. TempoDB makes cloud-based databases tailored to sensors and measurement data. For example, energy-use sensors in green buildings often take hundreds of readings per day, multiplied by hundreds of individual sensors. TempoDB launched in 2011 and in early 2012 took part in tech-business accelerator program TechStars Cloud. CEO Andrew Cronk relocated the company to Chicago later that year. The Oct. 9 Series A investment brings TempoDB's fundraising total to $4.2 million.
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FEATURED ARTICLE
TRENDING ARTICLE
Yield search can led to shark-tank investments
Financial Advisor
"The search for yield can lead to people adding little-understood investments to their portfolio, which can have disastrous results," said Chris Goolgasian, managing director at State Street Global Advisors. Goolgasian recently spoke at the Morningstar ETF Invest Conference in Chicago.

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The Signal and the Noise should influence your next financial prediction
CFA Chicago
Nate Silver has been called a "spreadsheet psychic" and "number-crunching prodigy" by New York Magazine — He uses his experience in baseball statistics to formulate incredible forecasting models for politics. CFA Society Chicago is proud to announce Nate Silver as the keynote speaker at the 27th Annual Dinner.

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Why investors need to read Nate Silver's book
Business Insider
What Nate Silver addresses more than anything in “The Signal and The Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — But Some Don’t” is how we know things — in particular how we use and misuse information to understand and make predictions about complex phenomena such as baseball performance, political outcomes, the weather, earthquakes and financial markets.

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Fama takes slap at active management
Investment News
Eugene Fama, a man widely regarded as the father of modern finance, recently held firm to his staunch opposition to active management and high fees while advocating a simplified system of asset management. “Active management is a zero-sum game before cost, and the winners have to win at the expense of losers,” he told an audience of financial professionals at the Investment Management Consultants Association's Advanced Wealth Management Conference.
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Many US investment advisers fall short on record-keeping: study
Reuters via Chicago Tribune
Many U.S. state-registered investment advisers are failing to follow basic industry record-keeping rules, according to a nationwide series of examinations by state regulators. One of the biggest problems: many advisers are not adequately documenting why their investment choices are appropriate for clients. Examination results compiled for a study conducted every two years by the North American Securities Administrators Association, or NASAA, also revealed that some advisers do not have written contracts with clients or properly describe their formulas for calculating fees, NASAA said.
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CFA Society Chicago NewsBrief

Colby Horton, Vice President of Publishing, 469.420.2601
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