Funding the government. Congress has until September 30 to pass all twelve appropriations bills to fund the government or risk another partial government shutdown. Odds are in favor of Congress passing a stop-gap funding bill, a continuing resolution, to get past the September 30 deadline. Beyond that, odds are harder to predict. (By the way, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget has an excellent primer on the appropriations process if you would like to learn more.)

Back in July, Congressional Democrats and the White House reached a budget deal, which both funded the government and increased the debt ceiling. Congress passed the budget bill right before August recess. Given the political tension and heightened partisanship of recent days, the budget compromise indicates both parties might have little appetite for another government shutdown.

To date, the Democrat-controlled House has passed 10 of the 12 appropriations bills, including the bill funding the IRS. The House bill actually increases IRS’ budget by 6 percent over last year ($12 billion total). The Senate, however, has yet to act on any appropriations bills. Senate appropriators are hoping to move as many bills as possible by September 30, but a continuing resolution to cover those agencies without enacted appropriations bills (including IRS) is all but guaranteed.

Keep in mind, at this time last year and even further into the fall, most prognosticators were not predicting that President Trump would reject a budget deal right before Christmas. That impasse led to the longest IRS shut down in history.

Outstanding tax bills. Of interest to NAEA members and their clients, tax extenders, retirement legislation, and TCJA technical corrections remain on the list of possible bills to watch this fall. Unfortunately, none of these individual bills, possibly even all three of them combined, would have the political capital to become a legislative driver. Another, more politically persuasive vehicle will likely be needed to move any type of tax legislation this year. Meanwhile, the system is gearing up for a presidential election during a major trade war with China and troubling economic indicators. The surer bet is against any tax legislation passing this year, but perhaps these are not the times for making big bets.